Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) recently released forecasts of peak wildflower blooms for the Upper Gunnison Basin around Crested Butte, known as the “Wildflower Capital of Colorado.”
The forecasts, developed by RMBL research scientist Ian Breckheimer, PhD, are available as interactive maps at rmblflowercast.org. They draw on long-term ecological data collected by researchers in Gothic, community-contributed observations on the iNaturalist platform, and satellite-based observations of snowpack and plant biodiversity.
Many Colorado mountain wildflowers bloom earlier when snowpack melts sooner, and spring temperatures are warmer. These relationships enable scientists to predict how much earlier or later flowering will occur at a given site compared with historical averages.
The system, supported by the Chrest Foundation, focuses on 14 common wildflower species known for their showy blooms, providing a representative snapshot of the hundreds of species that attract visitors to the Crested Butte area each summer. Because each species responds differently to environmental conditions, some shift bloom timing more dramatically than others.
This year’s conditions are especially unusual. Historically low snowpack and warm spring temperatures led to snowmelt occurring five to six weeks earlier than average at elevations near 9,000 feet. As a result, early-season species, such as glacier lilies and short-style bluebells, are blooming as much as a month ahead of schedule. As of early May, these species are already in full flower at RMBL’s Gothic research site, which sits at 9,500 feet.
RMBL scientists forecast that the peak of the wildflower season in the mountains near Crested Butte, which typically occurs in mid-July, will arrive nearly two weeks earlier this year. The exact timing varies by location, depending on elevation and the mix of plant species present.
However, earlier blooms do not necessarily mean more impressive displays. Low snowpack and earlier plant growth can expose wildflowers to freezing spring temperatures and drought stress, reducing the abundance and quality of blooms.
Scientists expect this year’s wildflower displays in the vicinity of Crested Butte to be both earlier and less vibrant than usual, especially at lower elevations.
“Scientists have been studying wildflower blooms at RMBL for more than half a century,” Breckheimer says. “Combining some of this data with detailed environmental information from sensors and satellites now gives us the ability to peer into the near future to forecast impacts of this unusual season.”
Seasons with early blooms have become substantially more common in the last few decades as climate change has increased spring temperatures and caused snowpack to melt sooner. Scientific research at RMBL has shown that early-flowering plants are blooming about two weeks earlier, on average, than they did in the 1970s.
Tools like RMBL’s wildflower forecasts provide insight into how climate change is reshaping sensitive mountain ecosystems, while also helping visitors plan trips around peak blooms and supporting local tourism partners. RMBL is working toward generating other useful forecasts based on its long-term field data, including fire risks and drought impacts on forests and streams.
RMBL scientists and volunteers are working to check how well the forecasts line up with reality this summer. Interested participants can fill out the form at https://tinyurl.com/wildflower-forecasting.
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