Not much rain, but it’s cooler and there’s hope

Editor:

The monsoon rains have been disappointing, but the temperatures have dropped almost 10 degrees since that awful heat wave we had in July. You should be aware that not only did July 2026 have the highest average temperature on record, but on July 19 a 92-degree temperature broke a 131-year-old record for that date. Enough. Lately, temperatures are tolerable and normal for Gunnison, at least for now.

What’s going on? The monsoonal flow was being blocked by an atmospheric high-pressure ridge. It fortunately moved east, and allowed what’s normal to happen, as a local weather person told me; “Or, mysteries of the atmosphere have changed.” Still, the monsoonal rains are well below normal, July only showed 0.56 inches of rain, and so far, August is not doing much better. Part of the problem is our geography, or more accurately, our topography, leading to that well-worn local expression, the “Gunnison Doughnut Hole.” It is real, and you can see it from any high point near Gunnison. We live in a bowl surrounded by mountains. To the north we have Storm Ridge (part of the West Elk Mountains) and to a degree the Elk Mountains. To the east we have Monarch Pass and the Sawatch Range. To the south and west, we have the San Juan Mountains. As moisture-laden clouds move around this Gunnison bowl, they produce a rain shadow effect (like Death Valley, next to the Sierra Mountains). Of course, it also produces our cold winters. As cold air pools, it gets trapped and radiates.

Now, getting back to the weak monsoonal rains – we’ve always lived in this bowl with our surrounding mountains robbing us of rain, so why is this summer different? Ah, that’s complicated – and there are several factors involved. Foremost is that our winds are now coming from the west, from the dry Great Basin, influenced by this super El Niño that has developed. For Gunnison to get our traditional monsoonal rains, we need flow from southerly or southwesterly sources carrying the moisture northward. Right now, the moisture plume that allows thunderstorms to develop over the top of the San Juan Mountains isn’t reaching far enough north, but it is making precipitation in the southern San Juans. Currently, the moisture conveyer belt isn’t pointed at Gunnison. However, there is good news, and we’re not necessarily done yet. Colorado’s Climate Center notes that there is a strong signal that monsoons will persist later than usual well into September with above average precipitation in western Colorado. Maybe?  

Bruce Bartleson

Gunnison