Drought forming across Western Slope

Aerial images of the Gunnison Basin revealed that much of the rolling lowlands had already melted out by the end of March. With warmer-than-usual temperatures lingering most of April, the high country is also on track for a speedy melt, triggering the potential for a short water supply this summer.

Snowfall was sporadic across much of the valley and Colorado this winter. According to the Natural Resources Conservation Service, on April 30 snowpack statewide is 57% of normal, with the southwestern portion of the state faring far worse than its northern neighbors. These are the lowest snowpack levels for this time of year since the 2014-15 water year.

Marked on the map in hues of red and orange — signaling a drought is in place — the snowpack this week in the Gunnison Basin sat at 47% of normal, the Upper Rio Grande at 23% and the San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan at 28%. There is little moisture in the current forecast, and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlook continues to show a warm and dry spring.

The volume of snowmelt in the spring dictates how much water is available to refill reservoirs, to irrigate fields and to power the summer boating season. With the weather heating up and the snow melting quickly, water managers are watching and waiting to see if the drought the valley is experiencing will stretch into the summer season.

“Ranchers are, of course, concerned, because that means that low flows will occur earlier than they normally do,” said Beverly Richards of the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District.

Winter 2024-25 started off with momentum with a huge early-season storm around Thanksgiving. Headed into the spring runoff season, near- to above-normal soil moisture conditions were also present in the Gunnison Basin, Cody Moser said during a water supply update on April 24. Moser is a senior hydrologist with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. Positive soil moisture conditions impact the water supply outlook as these areas can expect increased runoff.

But over the last four months, the valley dried out, Moser said. Precipitation levels October through March across the Gunnison Basin were 88% of the 30-year average (this spans from 1991-2020, some of the driest years on record). December was by far the worst, at 48% of average.

The arrival of spring brought no relief. The dry trend continued in April and brought record-high temperatures. The heat resulted in an early melt, draining some of the high-altitude areas that usually hang onto snow much later in the season. According to the 10-day forecast the melt is expected to pick up this week.

Water supply projections across the Gunnison River Basin are below normal, ranging from between 50-80% of average. At Blue Mesa Reservoir, projections show an inflow of just under 500,000 acre-feet of water as the snow melts. This runoff year falls into the “moderately dry” category, similar to 2020 and 2022. Blue Mesa is currently 61% full, and is expected to fill to 80%.

The timing of peak runoff is dependent on weather conditions. Last year, the Gunnison River flows peaked during the third and fourth week of May. Forecasts are showing it could peak early this year as warm temperatures persist. According to Bureau of Reclamation hydrologist Erik Knight, the river is expected to peak at flows around 5,500 cubic feet per second (cfs) through the Black Canyon, compared to 6,600 cfs in 2024.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, a large portion of southwestern Colorado is experiencing moderate or severe drought conditions. Last week, Gov. Jared Polis presented an overview of this year’s wildfire outlook and preparedness plan. Current forecasts through July show a “normal fire potential,” except for southwestern Colorado. The region’s risk “will likely be above normal due to the continued drought and expected hot, dry weather before the monsoon develops,” the plan states.

Colorado lawmakers estimate that since January 2025, the U.S. Forest Service alone has lost roughly 3,000 “red-card” holders across the country. Red cards are issued to federal public land managers who complete the training and physical fitness tests required to respond to wildlife incidents outside of their full-time jobs.

“In Colorado, we are no stranger to the impact of devastating wildfires … The federal cuts to wildfire services are troubling, and we continue to urge the administration to remain at the table with states,” Polis said in an April 24 press release.

(Bella Biondini can be contacted at 970.641.1414 or bella@gunnisontimes.com.)