The spring of 1984 has been on the minds of a lot of longtime locals lately.

They know that the quiet and peaceful basin can turn wild and roaring as water rushes off the mountains and onto valley floors in the form of spring snowmelt.

Brenda Kiester remembers 1984 clearly. It was her first year in Gunnison and she had the perfect "bird's eye view" of the Gunnison River from her home near Garlic Mike's.

The river was ripping out everything along its banks, including snowmobiles from a shed and huge, fully-leafed cottonwood trees. She remembers one tree barreling down the river and spearing the side of a mobile home that was hanging dangerously over an eroding cliff.

"It was exciting," she said.

Jo Ann Stone, who was the Gunnison County Emergency Services manager at the time, also remembers that teetering trailer.

"Within an hour of the time we got it moved, its parking spot was gone," she said.

The 1984 flood was the biggest since 1918, and current snowpack levels in the Gunnison Basin are right on track to produce a flood just as big, according to Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District Manager Frank Kugel.

As of Tuesday, the amount of moisture trapped within the basin's snowpack was 153 percent of normal.

The snow water equivalent exceeds the ‘84 levels for this date, Kugel said.

In 1984, the Gunnison River's peak flow was 6,830 cubic feet per second (cfs) on May 25.

In comparison, the river's average peak run-off is 2,700 cfs on June 9, according to Kugel.

"Given that scenario, it is prudent to be planning for some high water this spring," he said.

Homeowner's along the Gunnison River and other local waterways have begun to do just that - as local insurance and surveying companies can attest.

By 8:15 a.m. Monday - after yet another stormy weekend - Greg Geer reported that The Insurance Center had already written three flood insurance policies that day.

"We've probably written ten or twelve policies a day in the last two weeks here," he said. "It's really getting to be on everybody's mind."

Business is also beginning to surge at Furey Land Surveying Inc., which Kiester owns. Homeowners seeking flood insurance usually get a better deal if they first get an "elevation" - or "flood" - certificate to document the elevation of their homes in relation to the 100-year flood plain.

Preparations for a potential flood could end up taking a noticeable chunk out of people's pocketbooks. A survey and flood insurance together could cost homeowners in the realm of $1,000 to $6,000, depending on the type of coverage and whether a person lives in the designated flood zone.

 

Slow melt the key

Many will be eying the thermometer this spring.

Experts say springtime temperatures are even more important than the amount of snow in predicting a flood. Temperatures dictate how quickly the snow melts, and whether it melts along the valley floor and mountain tops simultaneously.

"If it's a nice, mellow, gradual spring, hopefully we won't have too many issues," said Gunnison County Emergency Services Manager Scott Morrill.

He is hoping for daytime temperatures that start warming up to around 40 degrees in March, but still drop below freezing after the sun sets.

In the last five years of so, according to Crested Butte water watcher Steve Glazer, the valley has experienced warmer-than-usual springs, where nighttime temperatures sometimes don't drop below freezing for extended periods of time. Glazer credits this to climate change and said it could spell bad news for flooding potential.

The long range forecast calls for near normal precipitation through the end of March and above average temperatures through June for the Gunnison area, according to Jim Pringle of the National Weather Service.

However, that forecast also called for near normal precipitation in January.

In 1984, a large part of the problem was that it stayed cold until about April and then warmed up quickly. Thus, all of the snow melted at once, according to Stone.

Areas likely to experience the brunt of a potential flood would be the lower elevation neighborhoods of West Gunnison; Dos Rios; Almont; and roads, bridges and houses along Tomichi Creek, Ohio Creek and Cochetopa Creek.

Glazer said Coal Creek, which runs through the Town of Crested Butte, has never actually spilled during his tenure here - dating back to 1969.

Nonetheless, it has come very close, he said.

If there is flooding, it would most likely occur between mid-May and mid-June, according to Kugel.

 

Learning from the past

In 1984, Gunnison County was one of 17 counties in Colorado to declare a state of disaster, Stone said.

The damages and inconveniences were widespread, from having to evacuate the nursing home in West Gunnison to downed bridges along Ohio Creek and flooded homes that turned into islands for weeks.

Ken Ashwood, who was in charge of photographing the damages to send to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as documentation, said the county received around $300,000 for repairs of roads, bridges and other public facilities.

In 1995, the conditions were stacking up for another major flood. County officials flew over the Gunnison River as the snow started to melt - videotaping trouble spots, such as bank erosion, so they could be mitigated.

The county spent around $37,000 on mitigation, Stone said.

While those types of past efforts should help in the event of a future flood, there are too many variables to say whether they actually will, Morrill said.

One of the county's main concerns is that the basin hasn't experienced significant high water for years and, as a result, considerable debris has built up along the river banks. If the river starts moving that debris, including branches and dead trees, it could easily clog culverts and build dams in front of bridges, Morrill said.

He said the county has already begun discussions with the City of Gunnison and Town of Crested Butte to prepare for a flood this year. They have begun ordering sandbags, coordinating available equipment and putting together a series of public service announcements to help locals get prepared.

City of Gunnison Public Works Director Tex Bradford said the city will be keeping a careful eye on its storm water drainage system - doing its best to ensure that the many large heaps of snow in the city can flow freely through the storm drains.

Glazer believes one of the best mechanisms for flood control in the past has been ranchers opening their ditches to divert water into their fields and flood irrigate.

If it floods this spring, it will be important to ensure that strategy is fully utilized, he said

Morrill encourages property owners in the 100-year flood plain to start making preparations by buying sandbags and flood insurance and thinking about where they will go if their house is flooded.

"Obviously, in Gunnison County, I don't see any houses floating down the river ... but you could definitely see some displaced people and some property damage," he said. "I encourage people to start thinking about it now, instead of when the water is lapping at their doors."

 

(Michelle Burkhart can be contacted at 970-641-1414 or michelle@gunnisontimes.com)